The companies affected by the defaults have produced a working document in which they estimate the impact of the technical default proceedings initiated against Spain, as well as the effect of the uncertainty and legal insecurity arising from the 25 defaults recorded to date. The document shows that, since the spring of 2023, the seizure measures and the announcement of the technical default process led to an increase in the cost of Treasury financing which, in turn, translated into worse market conditions for the private sector, as a result of this increase in the risk profile of the Spanish economy. The report can be downloaded here.
In 2024, those affected put on the table the proposal to negotiate an agreement with the Kingdom of Spain based on the payment of compensation through green bonds or similar mechanisms that would allow a satisfactory solution for all parties, thus reinvesting the outstanding capital in a way that would facilitate the financing of the energy transition. However, insofar as there has been no agreement to date, it can be anticipated that the damage observed in 2023-2024 will continue to extend to 2025. Based on available estimates, the hit to the Treasury over the next year would be close to €2.8 billion, while the negative impact on GDP would be around €4.8 billion. In total, the uncertainty caused by the defaults, the seizures and the technical default would already mean an impoverishment for Spain of close to €20 billion.